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Draft kit

Tiers and positional scarcity · 2025-26 season · updated

A tier is a group of players with no meaningful drop between them, bounded by a drop that is large for that position — which is what makes “wait a round and take an equivalent” a defensible call rather than a guess. Every boundary below shows the drop it was drawn from and how that compares to the position's typical step, and every drop that was rejected is one click away. These describe a season already played — they are not projections, and they carry no ageing curve, injury adjustment or change of team.

Scoring

Season

How deep each position is

Each row takes the value of the player at the last pick of that round in a 12-team league, and counts how many at each position still clear it. A position with a big number is one you can wait on; a position whose number collapses between two rows is one where waiting costs you the tier. Derived from this board only — nothing here assumes which positions are supposed to be scarce.

Players remaining above each round's value bar, by position.
RoundVORP barCLRDG
1 · pick 12267.833240
2 · pick 24210.635493
3 · pick 36160.0574146
4 · pick 48138.37941810
5 · pick 60122.29972213
6 · pick 72107.1131182416
7 · pick 8477.7131493117
8 · pick 9647.01417143219
9 · pick 10832.41617193621
10 · pick 12020.91918223922
11 · pick 1325.92221224522
12 · pick 1440.02424244824

144 players clear replacement level across 12 rounds — the pool a 12-team league drafting 12 rounds would actually take.

Tiers by position

C

Centre

24 of 234 draftable
Tier 11 player
25.0 drop · 4.2× typical
Tier 21 player
110.5 drop · 18.4× typical
Tier 31 player
150.8 drop · 25.1× typical
Tier 44 players
21.0 drop · 3.5× typical
Tier 56 players
55.0 drop · 9.2× typical
Tier 61 player
17.5 drop · 2.9× typical

24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 6 VORP, so a drop of 12 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 6 of 23 drops did.

Inspect all 23 drops
Every consecutive drop in VORP at Centre, and which ones were used as tier boundaries.
AfterDrop× typicalBreak
#125.04.2×tier
#2110.518.4×tier
#3150.825.1×tier
#410.51.8×
#50.60.1×
#66.01.0×
#721.03.5×tier
#810.21.7×
#92.30.4×
#101.90.3×
#110.60.1×
#121.10.2×
#1355.09.2×tier
#1417.52.9×tier
#155.30.9×
#167.81.3×
#177.11.2×
#182.70.5×
#192.70.5×
#202.40.4×
#214.50.8×
#228.31.4×
#233.00.5×
L

Left wing

24 of 125 draftable
Tier 11 player
70.3 drop · 6.0× typical
Tier 24 players
44.7 drop · 3.8× typical
38.3 drop · 3.2× typical

24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 11.8 VORP, so a drop of 23.6 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 3 of 23 drops did.

Inspect all 23 drops
Every consecutive drop in VORP at Left wing, and which ones were used as tier boundaries.
AfterDrop× typicalBreak
#170.36.0×tier
#216.11.4×
#319.81.7×
#416.01.4×
#544.73.8×tier
#623.12.0×
#712.21.0×
#811.81.0×
#923.22.0×
#105.10.4×
#1120.21.7×
#120.40.0×
#1316.71.4×
#143.20.3×
#158.60.7×
#167.10.6×
#1738.33.2×tier
#183.80.3×
#193.10.3×
#207.00.6×
#215.90.5×
#221.40.1×
#230.50.0×
R

Right wing

24 of 117 draftable
Tier 11 player
99.2 drop · 20.2× typical
Tier 21 player
42.9 drop · 8.8× typical
Tier 31 player
14.3 drop · 2.9× typical
Tier 41 player
78.3 drop · 16.0× typical
Tier 54 players
34.4 drop · 7.0× typical
Tier 65 players
15.9 drop · 3.2× typical
18.0 drop · 3.7× typical
Tier 82 players

24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 4.9 VORP, so a drop of 9.8 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 8 of 23 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.

Inspect all 23 drops
Every consecutive drop in VORP at Right wing, and which ones were used as tier boundaries.
AfterDrop× typicalBreak
#199.220.2×tier
#242.98.8×tier
#314.32.9×tier
#478.316.0×tier
#53.20.7×
#66.51.3×
#73.40.7×
#834.47.0×tier
#910.32.1×
#106.41.3×
#113.30.7×
#121.90.4×
#1315.93.2×tier
#142.40.5×
#154.91.0×
#163.10.6×
#172.00.4×
#182.20.4×
#191.50.3×
#200.90.2×
#218.11.7×
#2218.03.7×tier
#233.90.8×
D

Defence

48 of 239 draftable
Tier 11 player
46.5 drop · 13.3× typical
Tier 21 player
33.5 drop · 9.6× typical
Tier 32 players
20.7 drop · 5.9× typical
Tier 43 players
19.4 drop · 5.5× typical
Tier 52 players
20.0 drop · 5.7× typical
Tier 61 player
33.6 drop · 9.6× typical
19.7 drop · 5.6× typical

48 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 3.5 VORP, so a drop of 7 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 17 of 47 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.

Inspect all 47 drops
Every consecutive drop in VORP at Defence, and which ones were used as tier boundaries.
AfterDrop× typicalBreak
#146.513.3×tier
#233.59.6×tier
#315.84.5×
#420.75.9×tier
#58.22.3×
#610.12.9×
#719.45.5×tier
#82.30.7×
#920.05.7×tier
#1033.69.6×tier
#113.81.1×
#122.10.6×
#130.40.1×
#1411.83.4×
#154.81.4×
#1611.53.3×
#170.10.0×
#182.10.6×
#191.10.3×
#202.60.7×
#211.60.5×
#229.12.6×
#2314.74.2×
#242.50.7×
#2510.83.1×
#261.70.5×
#275.21.5×
#284.21.2×
#290.30.1×
#304.71.3×
#3119.75.6×tier
#3218.45.3×
#332.20.6×
#340.70.2×
#354.31.2×
#360.50.1×
#370.90.3×
#382.80.8×
#3915.94.5×
#402.30.7×
#410.10.0×
#420.50.1×
#432.70.8×
#440.80.2×
#450.50.1×
#463.51.0×
#471.90.5×
G

Goaltender

24 of 70 draftable
Tier 12 players
38.2 drop · 3.7× typical
Tier 24 players
20.8 drop · 2.0× typical
26.6 drop · 2.6× typical
Tier 43 players
28.2 drop · 2.8× typical
Tier 52 players

24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 10.2 VORP, so a drop of 20.4 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 4 of 23 drops did.

Inspect all 23 drops
Every consecutive drop in VORP at Goaltender, and which ones were used as tier boundaries.
AfterDrop× typicalBreak
#12.40.2×
#238.23.7×tier
#33.00.3×
#411.81.2×
#515.61.5×
#620.82.0×tier
#78.20.8×
#81.80.2×
#90.20.0×
#1012.81.3×
#110.40.0×
#126.20.6×
#1310.21.0×
#141.40.1×
#1511.01.1×
#1619.21.9×
#1710.61.0×
#1813.41.3×
#1926.62.6×tier
#203.60.4×
#213.60.4×
#2228.22.8×tier
#232.20.2×

How these tiers were drawn

Players at each position are sorted by VORP — value over the replacement-level player at the same position, the number the rankings board already ranks by. A new tier opens wherever the drop from one player to the next is at least 2× that position's median drop. Median rather than mean, because the mean is dragged upward by exactly the cliffs the rule exists to find.

The bar is a multiple rather than a fixed number of points so it works unchanged across scoring formats whose values differ by two orders of magnitude. A position is cut into at most 8 tiers; when that binds, the smallest qualifying drops are the ones left inside a tier, so what is lost is always the weakest claim. Fewer than 4 players above replacement is reported as untiered rather than shown as one tier — “these three are equivalent” would be a finding nobody computed.

What this rule gets wrong. The boundaries depend on which players are in the pool: widening it lowers the median drop and promotes more drops to boundaries. The pool is therefore pinned to players at or above replacement level — the 144 players a 12-team league would draft — and cannot be changed by a query parameter. A genuinely smooth position comes back as one tier, which is the correct answer and looks like a broken feature; the per-position line under each board says how many drops cleared the bar so that case is legible. The full method behind the underlying values is published in the methodology.