Draft kit
Tiers and positional scarcity · 2025-26 season · updated
Season
How deep each position is
Each row takes the value of the player at the last pick of that round in a 10-team league, and counts how many at each position still clear it. A position with a big number is one you can wait on; a position whose number collapses between two rows is one where waiting costs you the tier. Derived from this board only — nothing here assumes which positions are supposed to be scarce.
| Round | VORP bar | C | L | R | D | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · pick 10 | 234.2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 · pick 20 | 189.4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 3 · pick 30 | 129.8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| 4 · pick 40 | 115.4 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 5 |
| 5 · pick 50 | 98.8 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 5 |
| 6 · pick 60 | 82.0 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 9 |
| 7 · pick 70 | 70.2 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 24 | 12 |
| 8 · pick 80 | 47.0 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 29 | 16 |
| 9 · pick 90 | 31.2 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 31 | 18 |
| 10 · pick 100 | 12.8 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 37 | 19 |
| 11 · pick 110 | 2.4 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 38 | 19 |
| 12 · pick 120 | 0.0 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 40 | 20 |
120 players clear replacement level across 12 rounds — the pool a 10-team league drafting 12 rounds would actually take.
Tiers by position
Centre
20 of 234 draftable- 1
Connor McDavid398.4
- 2
Nathan MacKinnon387.2
- 7
Macklin Celebrini278.6
- 28
Martin Necas132.8
- 35
Nick Suzuki124.6
- 36
Tage Thompson122.4
- 44
Wyatt Johnston108.8
- 46
Jack Eichel103.6
- 47
Mark Scheifele101.2
- 55
Leon Draisaitl92.0
- 58
Jake Guentzel89.6
- 66
Tim Stützle75.8
- 67
Mika Zibanejad72.6
- 98
Sebastian Aho15.0
- 101
Steven Stamkos12.4
- 103
Connor Bedard8.6
- 107
Jack Hughes5.4
- 109
Dylan Cozens4.2
- 115
Nick Schmaltz0.4
- 116
Morgan Geekie0.0
20 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 3.8 VORP, so a drop of 7.6 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 8 of 19 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.
Inspect all 19 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 11.2 | 2.9× | tier |
| #2 | 108.6 | 28.6× | tier |
| #3 | 145.8 | 38.4× | tier |
| #4 | 8.2 | 2.2× | |
| #5 | 2.2 | 0.6× | |
| #6 | 13.6 | 3.6× | tier |
| #7 | 5.2 | 1.4× | |
| #8 | 2.4 | 0.6× | |
| #9 | 9.2 | 2.4× | tier |
| #10 | 2.4 | 0.6× | |
| #11 | 13.8 | 3.6× | tier |
| #12 | 3.2 | 0.8× | |
| #13 | 57.6 | 15.2× | tier |
| #14 | 2.6 | 0.7× | |
| #15 | 3.8 | 1.0× | |
| #16 | 3.2 | 0.8× | |
| #17 | 1.2 | 0.3× | |
| #18 | 3.8 | 1.0× | |
| #19 | 0.4 | 0.1× |
Left wing
20 of 125 draftable- 5
Jason Robertson311.0
- 9
Kirill Kaprizov252.8
- 10
Kyle Connor234.2
- 11
Matt Boldy232.4
- 18
Filip Forsberg193.6
- 23
Cutter Gauthier166.6
- 27
Artemi Panarin133.0
- 34
Juraj Slafkovský125.2
- 37
Alex Ovechkin122.2
- 42
Brandon Hagel111.2
- 62
Brady Tkachuk77.2
- 63
Nikolaj Ehlers76.6
- 65
Lucas Raymond76.2
- 73
Jesper Bratt57.6
- 85
Matthew Knies39.6
- 97
Kiefer Sherwood15.2
- 104
Tyler Bertuzzi7.8
- 111
Will Cuylle1.6
- 114
Alexis Lafrenière0.6
- 120
Ivan Barbashev0.0
20 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 11 VORP, so a drop of 22 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 6 of 19 drops did.
Inspect all 19 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 58.2 | 5.3× | tier |
| #2 | 18.6 | 1.7× | |
| #3 | 1.8 | 0.2× | |
| #4 | 38.8 | 3.5× | tier |
| #5 | 27.0 | 2.5× | tier |
| #6 | 33.6 | 3.1× | tier |
| #7 | 7.8 | 0.7× | |
| #8 | 3.0 | 0.3× | |
| #9 | 11.0 | 1.0× | |
| #10 | 34.0 | 3.1× | tier |
| #11 | 0.6 | 0.1× | |
| #12 | 0.4 | 0.0× | |
| #13 | 18.6 | 1.7× | |
| #14 | 18.0 | 1.6× | |
| #15 | 24.4 | 2.2× | tier |
| #16 | 7.4 | 0.7× | |
| #17 | 6.2 | 0.6× | |
| #18 | 1.0 | 0.1× | |
| #19 | 0.6 | 0.1× |
Right wing
20 of 117 draftable- 4
Nikita Kucherov327.4
- 14
David Pastrnak218.6
- 20
Cole Caufield189.4
- 21
Alex DeBrincat177.0
- 50
Dylan Guenther98.8
- 51
Clayton Keller98.6
- 54
Adrian Kempe94.8
- 69
Andrei Svechnikov70.6
- 82
Seth Jarvis43.0
- 83
Drake Batherson42.8
- 86
Pavel Dorofeyev37.6
- 88
Alex Tuch35.4
- 89
Kirill Marchenko31.4
- 93
Mitch Marner23.6
- 102
William Nylander10.0
- 105
Tom Wilson6.8
- 108
Travis Konecny4.4
- 110
Bryan Rust2.4
- 113
Owen Tippett1.0
- 118
Mikko Rantanen0.0
20 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 4 VORP, so a drop of 8 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 7 of 19 drops did.
Inspect all 19 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 108.8 | 27.2× | tier |
| #2 | 29.2 | 7.3× | tier |
| #3 | 12.4 | 3.1× | tier |
| #4 | 78.2 | 19.6× | tier |
| #5 | 0.2 | 0.1× | |
| #6 | 3.8 | 0.9× | |
| #7 | 24.2 | 6.0× | tier |
| #8 | 27.6 | 6.9× | tier |
| #9 | 0.2 | 0.1× | |
| #10 | 5.2 | 1.3× | |
| #11 | 2.2 | 0.6× | |
| #12 | 4.0 | 1.0× | |
| #13 | 7.8 | 1.9× | |
| #14 | 13.6 | 3.4× | tier |
| #15 | 3.2 | 0.8× | |
| #16 | 2.4 | 0.6× | |
| #17 | 2.0 | 0.5× | |
| #18 | 1.4 | 0.3× | |
| #19 | 1.0 | 0.3× |
Defence
40 of 239 draftable- 3
Evan Bouchard338.2
- 6
Zach Werenski301.0
- 8
Cale Makar259.8
- 12
Darren Raddysh228.4
- 13
Rasmus Dahlin224.0
- 15
Moritz Seider215.2
- 16
Jakob Chychrun210.0
- 17
Quinn Hughes193.6
- 19
Matthew Schaefer192.4
- 22
Lane Hutson176.8
- 26
Erik Karlsson148.8
- 29
Miro Heiskanen132.0
- 30
Jackson LaCombe129.8
- 31
Mikhail Sergachev128.8
- 38
Roman Josi119.2
- 40
Charlie McAvoy115.4
- 41
John Carlson111.6
- 43
Brock Faber110.2
- 45
Rasmus Andersson106.6
- 48
Jake Sanderson100.8
- 49
Noah Dobson99.8
- 53
Josh Morrissey96.8
- 57
Filip Hronek90.2
- 64
Dougie Hamilton76.4
- 71
Jacob Trouba65.0
- 72
Vince Dunn61.8
- 74
Brandt Clarke56.6
- 75
Justin Faulk54.6
- 80
Sean Walker47.0
- 81
Mattias Samuelsson46.0
- 84
MacKenzie Weegar40.4
- 91
Shayne Gostisbehere28.0
- 94
Adam Fox20.4
- 95
Sam Malinski19.0
- 96
Darnell Nurse17.2
- 99
Mattias Ekholm14.2
- 100
Brandon Montour12.8
- 106
Alexander Nikishin6.4
- 112
Brent Burns1.4
- 117
Josh Manson0.0
40 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 5.2 VORP, so a drop of 10.4 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 10 of 39 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.
Inspect all 39 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 37.2 | 7.2× | tier |
| #2 | 41.2 | 7.9× | tier |
| #3 | 31.4 | 6.0× | tier |
| #4 | 4.4 | 0.8× | |
| #5 | 8.8 | 1.7× | |
| #6 | 5.2 | 1.0× | |
| #7 | 16.4 | 3.2× | tier |
| #8 | 1.2 | 0.2× | |
| #9 | 15.6 | 3.0× | tier |
| #10 | 28.0 | 5.4× | tier |
| #11 | 16.8 | 3.2× | tier |
| #12 | 2.2 | 0.4× | |
| #13 | 1.0 | 0.2× | |
| #14 | 9.6 | 1.8× | |
| #15 | 3.8 | 0.7× | |
| #16 | 3.8 | 0.7× | |
| #17 | 1.4 | 0.3× | |
| #18 | 3.6 | 0.7× | |
| #19 | 5.8 | 1.1× | |
| #20 | 1.0 | 0.2× | |
| #21 | 3.0 | 0.6× | |
| #22 | 6.6 | 1.3× | |
| #23 | 13.8 | 2.7× | |
| #24 | 11.4 | 2.2× | |
| #25 | 3.2 | 0.6× | |
| #26 | 5.2 | 1.0× | |
| #27 | 2.0 | 0.4× | |
| #28 | 7.6 | 1.5× | |
| #29 | 1.0 | 0.2× | |
| #30 | 5.6 | 1.1× | |
| #31 | 12.4 | 2.4× | |
| #32 | 7.6 | 1.5× | |
| #33 | 1.4 | 0.3× | |
| #34 | 1.8 | 0.3× | |
| #35 | 3.0 | 0.6× | |
| #36 | 1.4 | 0.3× | |
| #37 | 6.4 | 1.2× | |
| #38 | 5.0 | 1.0× | |
| #39 | 1.4 | 0.3× |
Goaltender
20 of 70 draftable- 24
Andrei Vasilevskiy164.4
- 25
Logan Thompson152.0
- 32
Karel Vejmelka127.4
- 33
Jeremy Swayman125.6
- 39
Ilya Sorokin118.6
- 52
Jet Greaves97.0
- 56
Jake Oettinger90.8
- 59
Scott Wedgewood84.0
- 60
John Gibson82.0
- 61
Igor Shesterkin81.8
- 68
Juuse Saros71.8
- 70
Filip Gustavsson70.2
- 76
Dan Vladar54.0
- 77
Dustin Wolf51.6
- 78
Spencer Knight51.4
- 79
Joel Hofer51.0
- 87
Lukas Dostal35.8
- 90
Connor Hellebuyck31.2
- 92
Jakub Dobes25.2
- 119
Linus Ullmark0.0
20 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 6.2 VORP, so a drop of 12.4 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 6 of 19 drops did.
Inspect all 19 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 12.4 | 2.0× | tier |
| #2 | 24.6 | 4.0× | tier |
| #3 | 1.8 | 0.3× | |
| #4 | 7.0 | 1.1× | |
| #5 | 21.6 | 3.5× | tier |
| #6 | 6.2 | 1.0× | |
| #7 | 6.8 | 1.1× | |
| #8 | 2.0 | 0.3× | |
| #9 | 0.2 | 0.0× | |
| #10 | 10.0 | 1.6× | |
| #11 | 1.6 | 0.3× | |
| #12 | 16.2 | 2.6× | tier |
| #13 | 2.4 | 0.4× | |
| #14 | 0.2 | 0.0× | |
| #15 | 0.4 | 0.1× | |
| #16 | 15.2 | 2.5× | tier |
| #17 | 4.6 | 0.7× | |
| #18 | 6.0 | 1.0× | |
| #19 | 25.2 | 4.1× | tier |
How these tiers were drawn
Players at each position are sorted by VORP — value over the replacement-level player at the same position, the number the rankings board already ranks by. A new tier opens wherever the drop from one player to the next is at least 2× that position's median drop. Median rather than mean, because the mean is dragged upward by exactly the cliffs the rule exists to find.
The bar is a multiple rather than a fixed number of points so it works unchanged across scoring formats whose values differ by two orders of magnitude. A position is cut into at most 8 tiers; when that binds, the smallest qualifying drops are the ones left inside a tier, so what is lost is always the weakest claim. Fewer than 4 players above replacement is reported as untiered rather than shown as one tier — “these three are equivalent” would be a finding nobody computed.
What this rule gets wrong. The boundaries depend on which players are in the pool: widening it lowers the median drop and promotes more drops to boundaries. The pool is therefore pinned to players at or above replacement level — the 120 players a 10-team league would draft — and cannot be changed by a query parameter. A genuinely smooth position comes back as one tier, which is the correct answer and looks like a broken feature; the per-position line under each board says how many drops cleared the bar so that case is legible. The full method behind the underlying values is published in the methodology.