Draft kit
Tiers and positional scarcity · 2025-26 season · updated
Season
How deep each position is
Each row takes the value of the player at the last pick of that round in a 12-team league, and counts how many at each position still clear it. A position with a big number is one you can wait on; a position whose number collapses between two rows is one where waiting costs you the tier. Derived from this board only — nothing here assumes which positions are supposed to be scarce.
| Round | VORP bar | C | L | R | D | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · pick 12 | 8.4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 · pick 24 | 6.0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| 3 · pick 36 | 4.7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| 4 · pick 48 | 3.7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 1 |
| 5 · pick 60 | 3.3 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 3 |
| 6 · pick 72 | 2.6 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 27 | 4 |
| 7 · pick 84 | 1.8 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 30 | 7 |
| 8 · pick 96 | 1.4 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 9 · pick 108 | 0.7 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 37 | 15 |
| 10 · pick 120 | 0.5 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 43 | 16 |
| 11 · pick 132 | 0.2 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 44 | 22 |
| 12 · pick 144 | 0.0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 48 | 24 |
144 players clear replacement level across 12 rounds — the pool a 12-team league drafting 12 rounds would actually take.
Tiers by position
Centre
24 of 234 draftable- 1
Nathan MacKinnon15.1
- 2
Connor McDavid14.5
- 8
Macklin Celebrini9.4
- 9
Nick Suzuki9.3
- 16
Martin Necas8.0
- 29
Jack Eichel5.5
- 30
Leon Draisaitl5.4
- 33
Wyatt Johnston4.9
- 39
Jake Guentzel4.5
- 40
Tim Stützle4.5
- 54
Mark Scheifele3.5
- 56
Tage Thompson3.5
- 70
Mika Zibanejad2.6
- 77
Sebastian Aho2.3
- 86
Nick Schmaltz1.8
- 87
Dylan Cozens1.8
- 108
Morgan Geekie0.7
- 110
Brock Nelson0.7
- 111
Dylan Larkin0.7
- 121
Jack Hughes0.4
- 129
Nico Hischier0.3
- 130
Mathew Barzal0.3
- 131
Ryan O'Reilly0.2
- 142
Sidney Crosby0.0
24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 0.248 VORP, so a drop of 0.496 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 9 of 23 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.
Inspect all 23 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 0.6 | 2.4× | tier |
| #2 | 5.1 | 20.8× | tier |
| #3 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #4 | 1.4 | 5.4× | tier |
| #5 | 2.5 | 10.0× | tier |
| #6 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #7 | 0.5 | 2.0× | |
| #8 | 0.4 | 1.6× | |
| #9 | 0.0 | 0.2× | |
| #10 | 0.9 | 3.7× | tier |
| #11 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #12 | 0.9 | 3.6× | tier |
| #13 | 0.3 | 1.3× | |
| #14 | 0.6 | 2.3× | |
| #15 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #16 | 1.1 | 4.3× | tier |
| #17 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #18 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #19 | 0.2 | 0.9× | |
| #20 | 0.2 | 0.7× | |
| #21 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #22 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #23 | 0.2 | 1.0× |
Left wing
24 of 125 draftable- 5
Jason Robertson11.5
- 10
Matt Boldy8.9
- 14
Kirill Kaprizov8.3
- 20
Juraj Slafkovský6.4
- 23
Filip Forsberg6.0
- 28
Kyle Connor5.6
- 31
Brandon Hagel5.2
- 47
Cutter Gauthier3.9
- 53
Nikolaj Ehlers3.5
- 59
Brady Tkachuk3.4
- 60
Lucas Raymond3.3
- 61
Alex Ovechkin3.3
- 63
Artemi Panarin3.1
- 83
Ivan Barbashev1.9
- 94
Jesper Bratt1.4
- 99
Lawson Crouse1.3
- 100
Will Cuylle1.2
- 105
Dylan Holloway0.9
- 106
Kiefer Sherwood0.8
- 109
Noah Cates0.7
- 134
Viktor Arvidsson0.2
- 136
Alexis Lafrenière0.1
- 138
Zach Hyman0.1
- 143
Matthew Knies0.0
24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 0.3 VORP, so a drop of 0.6 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 4 of 23 drops did.
Inspect all 23 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2.6 | 8.8× | tier |
| #2 | 0.6 | 1.9× | |
| #3 | 1.9 | 6.4× | tier |
| #4 | 0.3 | 1.0× | |
| #5 | 0.4 | 1.3× | |
| #6 | 0.5 | 1.7× | |
| #7 | 1.3 | 4.3× | tier |
| #8 | 0.3 | 1.0× | |
| #9 | 0.2 | 0.5× | |
| #10 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #11 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #12 | 0.1 | 0.4× | |
| #13 | 1.2 | 4.1× | tier |
| #14 | 0.5 | 1.5× | |
| #15 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #16 | 0.2 | 0.6× | |
| #17 | 0.3 | 1.0× | |
| #18 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #19 | 0.1 | 0.2× | |
| #20 | 0.5 | 1.8× | |
| #21 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #22 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #23 | 0.1 | 0.3× |
Right wing
24 of 117 draftable- 3
Nikita Kucherov14.2
- 12
David Pastrnak8.4
- 15
Cole Caufield8.3
- 22
Alex DeBrincat6.1
- 27
Clayton Keller5.7
- 41
Adrian Kempe4.4
- 43
Dylan Guenther4.2
- 44
Andrei Svechnikov4.2
- 45
Alex Tuch4.0
- 48
Mitch Marner3.7
- 49
Mark Stone3.7
- 62
Tom Wilson3.2
- 65
Drake Batherson3.0
- 66
Kirill Marchenko2.9
- 68
Mikko Rantanen2.7
- 69
Seth Jarvis2.7
- 75
Travis Konecny2.5
- 78
Pavel Dorofeyev2.1
- 80
Bryan Rust2.1
- 97
Alex Laferriere1.4
- 112
Anthony Mantha0.6
- 117
Owen Tippett0.5
- 123
William Nylander0.3
- 141
Vasily Podkolzin0.0
24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 0.196 VORP, so a drop of 0.392 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 7 of 23 drops did.
Inspect all 23 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.8 | 29.5× | tier |
| #2 | 0.2 | 0.9× | |
| #3 | 2.2 | 11.1× | tier |
| #4 | 0.4 | 2.2× | tier |
| #5 | 1.2 | 6.3× | tier |
| #6 | 0.2 | 1.0× | |
| #7 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #8 | 0.2 | 0.9× | |
| #9 | 0.3 | 1.4× | |
| #10 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #11 | 0.5 | 2.5× | tier |
| #12 | 0.2 | 1.0× | |
| #13 | 0.1 | 0.6× | |
| #14 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #15 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #16 | 0.2 | 1.2× | |
| #17 | 0.4 | 1.8× | |
| #18 | 0.1 | 0.3× | |
| #19 | 0.7 | 3.6× | tier |
| #20 | 0.8 | 3.9× | tier |
| #21 | 0.1 | 0.4× | |
| #22 | 0.2 | 0.9× | |
| #23 | 0.3 | 1.8× |
Defence
48 of 239 draftable- 4
Evan Bouchard12.1
- 6
Cale Makar10.6
- 7
Moritz Seider9.8
- 11
Lane Hutson8.7
- 13
Zach Werenski8.3
- 17
Darren Raddysh7.9
- 18
Rasmus Dahlin7.6
- 19
Jakob Chychrun7.2
- 21
Quinn Hughes6.1
- 24
Matthew Schaefer6.0
- 25
Miro Heiskanen5.9
- 26
Charlie McAvoy5.8
- 32
Mikhail Sergachev5.0
- 34
Jake Sanderson4.9
- 35
Mattias Samuelsson4.8
- 37
Erik Karlsson4.7
- 38
Brock Faber4.6
- 42
Jackson LaCombe4.3
- 46
Noah Dobson3.9
- 51
John Carlson3.6
- 55
Rasmus Andersson3.5
- 57
Brandt Clarke3.5
- 58
Josh Morrissey3.4
- 64
Josh Manson3.1
- 71
Mattias Ekholm2.6
- 72
Sam Malinski2.6
- 73
Roman Josi2.6
- 81
Filip Hronek2.0
- 82
Jacob Trouba1.9
- 84
Alexander Nikishin1.8
- 90
Adam Fox1.6
- 91
Sean Walker1.5
- 92
Dougie Hamilton1.5
- 96
Esa Lindell1.4
- 98
Shayne Gostisbehere1.4
- 102
Justin Faulk1.0
- 103
Brent Burns1.0
- 113
Martin Fehervary0.6
- 114
Travis Sanheim0.6
- 116
Bowen Byram0.6
- 118
Mike Matheson0.5
- 119
J.J. Moser0.5
- 120
Ivan Provorov0.5
- 125
Nikita Zadorov0.3
- 133
Parker Wotherspoon0.2
- 135
Thomas Harley0.1
- 139
Darnell Nurse0.0
- 144
MacKenzie Weegar0.0
48 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 0.118 VORP, so a drop of 0.236 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 17 of 47 drops did, and only the 7 largest were used — this position is cut to the 8-tier maximum, so the smallest qualifying drops were left inside a tier.
Inspect all 47 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 1.5 | 12.9× | tier |
| #2 | 0.7 | 6.2× | tier |
| #3 | 1.1 | 9.5× | tier |
| #4 | 0.4 | 3.4× | |
| #5 | 0.4 | 3.3× | |
| #6 | 0.3 | 3.0× | |
| #7 | 0.4 | 3.6× | |
| #8 | 1.0 | 8.9× | tier |
| #9 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #10 | 0.2 | 1.5× | |
| #11 | 0.1 | 0.5× | |
| #12 | 0.8 | 6.9× | tier |
| #13 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #14 | 0.1 | 0.9× | |
| #15 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #16 | 0.2 | 1.3× | |
| #17 | 0.3 | 2.5× | |
| #18 | 0.3 | 2.9× | |
| #19 | 0.3 | 2.7× | |
| #20 | 0.1 | 0.6× | |
| #21 | 0.0 | 0.2× | |
| #22 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #23 | 0.3 | 2.8× | |
| #24 | 0.5 | 4.1× | tier |
| #25 | 0.0 | 0.2× | |
| #26 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #27 | 0.6 | 4.9× | tier |
| #28 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #29 | 0.1 | 1.0× | |
| #30 | 0.2 | 2.0× | |
| #31 | 0.0 | 0.4× | |
| #32 | 0.0 | 0.3× | |
| #33 | 0.1 | 1.0× | |
| #34 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #35 | 0.4 | 3.2× | |
| #36 | 0.0 | 0.3× | |
| #37 | 0.3 | 2.9× | |
| #38 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #39 | 0.0 | 0.3× | |
| #40 | 0.0 | 0.4× | |
| #41 | 0.0 | 0.3× | |
| #42 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #43 | 0.2 | 1.4× | |
| #44 | 0.1 | 0.8× | |
| #45 | 0.1 | 0.5× | |
| #46 | 0.1 | 1.2× | |
| #47 | 0.0 | 0.0× |
Goaltender
24 of 70 draftable- 36
Scott Wedgewood4.7
- 50
Ilya Sorokin3.7
- 52
Joel Hofer3.6
- 67
Jesper Wallstedt2.8
- 74
Logan Thompson2.5
- 76
Andrei Vasilevskiy2.4
- 79
Jake Oettinger2.1
- 85
Filip Gustavsson1.8
- 88
Mackenzie Blackwood1.7
- 89
Alex Lyon1.6
- 93
Anton Forsberg1.5
- 95
John Gibson1.4
- 101
Brandon Bussi1.2
- 104
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9
- 107
Jeremy Swayman0.8
- 115
Jacob Fowler0.6
- 122
Dennis Hildeby0.4
- 124
Connor Ingram0.3
- 126
Jet Greaves0.3
- 127
Casey DeSmith0.3
- 128
Igor Shesterkin0.3
- 132
Linus Ullmark0.2
- 137
Karel Vejmelka0.1
- 140
Colten Ellis0.0
24 players clear replacement level here. Their typical drop from one to the next is 0.116 VORP, so a drop of 0.232 or more (2x typical) opens a new tier: 6 of 23 drops did.
Inspect all 23 drops
| After | Drop | × typical | Break |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 1.1 | 9.3× | tier |
| #2 | 0.1 | 0.9× | |
| #3 | 0.8 | 6.6× | tier |
| #4 | 0.3 | 2.4× | tier |
| #5 | 0.1 | 0.9× | |
| #6 | 0.3 | 2.7× | tier |
| #7 | 0.3 | 2.7× | tier |
| #8 | 0.1 | 0.5× | |
| #9 | 0.1 | 1.2× | |
| #10 | 0.1 | 1.0× | |
| #11 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #12 | 0.2 | 2.1× | tier |
| #13 | 0.2 | 1.8× | |
| #14 | 0.2 | 1.5× | |
| #15 | 0.2 | 1.5× | |
| #16 | 0.2 | 1.9× | |
| #17 | 0.0 | 0.3× | |
| #18 | 0.0 | 0.2× | |
| #19 | 0.0 | 0.0× | |
| #20 | 0.0 | 0.1× | |
| #21 | 0.1 | 0.7× | |
| #22 | 0.1 | 0.9× | |
| #23 | 0.1 | 0.8× |
How these tiers were drawn
Players at each position are sorted by VORP — value over the replacement-level player at the same position, the number the rankings board already ranks by. A new tier opens wherever the drop from one player to the next is at least 2× that position's median drop. Median rather than mean, because the mean is dragged upward by exactly the cliffs the rule exists to find.
The bar is a multiple rather than a fixed number of points so it works unchanged across scoring formats whose values differ by two orders of magnitude. A position is cut into at most 8 tiers; when that binds, the smallest qualifying drops are the ones left inside a tier, so what is lost is always the weakest claim. Fewer than 4 players above replacement is reported as untiered rather than shown as one tier — “these three are equivalent” would be a finding nobody computed.
What this rule gets wrong. The boundaries depend on which players are in the pool: widening it lowers the median drop and promotes more drops to boundaries. The pool is therefore pinned to players at or above replacement level — the 144 players a 12-team league would draft — and cannot be changed by a query parameter. A genuinely smooth position comes back as one tier, which is the correct answer and looks like a broken feature; the per-position line under each board says how many drops cleared the bar so that case is legible. The full method behind the underlying values is published in the methodology.